Bachmann Thomas & Friends Summer 2021 NMRA Predictions

[TrainFan97]

Here are the next engine priorities:

HO Scale
#1 priority for recolor: Sidney
#1 priority for new tooling: Stepney

HOn30 Scale (Narrow Gauge)
#1 priority for recolor: Smudger
#1 priority for new tooling: Sir Handel

For HO Scale, Stepney definitely has to be the next newly-tooled engine after Ryan. Some were upset that Ryan was chosen over Stepney, but at least it made sense that Ryan was announced after Daisy because of the fact that they both share a branch line. At least the Bachmann team is actually considering looking into making Stepney. They're fully aware of his demand, as he is one of the all-time most-requested engines for HO Scale. Once he's finally announced, Stepney will be the first engine based on the model series since Duck.

Ryan will be the largest steam engine in the HO Scale range in quite some time, while Daisy is going to be the first larger diesel who isn't a shunter. These two are no small engines, and they're both on the horizon.

EDIT:
Regarding N Scale, I have a feeling that the 5th engine will be Emily. If they're still not ready to make Gordon or Henry yet, good possibilities would be Emily, Edward, or Diesel. Because the N Scale range is in its infancy, they may not be ready to make an engine with a tooling as versatile as Diesel's just yet. With Toby on the horizon, we're already going to have half the original Steam Team in N Scale, and I think Emily will most likely be next.

For N Scale rolling stock, I'm shocked they still haven't announced the Milk Tanker. I hope they eventually do make Henrietta to go with Toby. If Emily is indeed the 5th engine in the range, they need to make her coaches as well. The Red Coaches will also be great for N Scale rolling stock.

For Large Scale engines, the next possible new tooling can be Edward, Mavis, Duck, Oliver, or Bill and Ben. Recolor suggestions include 'Arry and Bert (with better faces), LBSC Thomas, and Origin James. The best idea for Large Scale rolling stock would be the Red Coaches. Henrietta may be too complicated for this size.

[Falcon the 2nd]

TrainFan pretty much put it best for HO and N Scale priorities. Stepney and Sir Handel should definitely be the next new toolings in their respective lines after Ryan and Peter Sam. Though I hadn't thought much about Emily in N Scale, I do feel like she may come next on some considerable level. Rolling stock suggestions for N Scale and recolor priorities are all valid too.

While we're discussing long-term possibilities and the Large Scale range is getting two entries later this year, now would be a good time to discuss potential future Large Scale engines. Bigger engines aside, the range still has plenty of options for something new after Diesel and Paxton.

Which new engine is most likely next for Large Scale?

• Mavis - Popular choice and cost-effective option (chassis is similar to Toby), but relevance may be an issue
• Edward - Popular choice and cost-effective option (tooling is similar to James), but relevance may be an issue
• Bill & Ben - Two characters with one tooling, similar to Diesel & Paxton
• Duck - Longer base may be an issue, but is he impossible?
• Oliver - They'd need to make Toad to go with him
• Arry & Bert - They'd need to improve upon their faces
• Rosie - Likable character who is the right size, could use her red paintwork
• Glynn - Awkward design may work better in Large Scale than HO Scale
• Stephen - Same as Glynn
• LBSC Thomas - Recent recolor in HO Scale
• Origins James - Recent recolor in HO Scale

Part of me expects Thomas and James' recolors to come next, but if I had the choice for a brand-new engine, I'd be stuck between the top three (Mavis, Edward, Bill & Ben). All of them are cost-effective options of introducing a new engine without resorting to recolors and all of them have garnered some fair interest among fans.

[clrp5150]

Edward - Mattel practically deleted him and would never approve
Gordon - Far too big
Henry - Same reasons as Edward and Gordon
Duck - Would sell well, but may be too long
Donald and Douglas - same as Duck, but if they made Duck they could reuse his chassis for these guys
Oliver - He is short enough to be considered IMO, but you can't just make Oliver without Duck
Bill and Ben - Very likely. Small, fan favorites and you can't have one without the other
Spencer - Same as Gordon
Rosie - I would expect her in the next year or two, but I'm not sure if they would do her normal paint job or red one
Ryan - Same as Duck
Salty - Is discontinued in HO, so Bachmann isn't likely to make him
Arry and Bert - Same as Salty
Mavis - Easy to make, using the same chassis as Toby, but I have this feeling that her HO model will be discontinued soon and they likely wouldn't make her without her HO version being available
Daisy - Same as Gordon

[Falcon the 2nd]

Goodness, that's a bit much for a response...

[Metal]

Other then Edward for the LS range

Maybe Stephen could work considering that the LS market is a bit quirky. Not only would he work as a Thomas character but he could also serve as a very easy  kitbash for the real Stephenson's Rocket. It's one of the most popular locomotives to model.

[TrainFan97]

Edward would be a great choice for Large Scale, but the only problem is that he (along with Henry) was disrespected terribly by Mattel, especially during the infamous Big World Big Adventures era.

I think the most likely choice for a new tooling in Large Scale is Bill and Ben. They're two small engines using the same tooling, and you can't have one without the other. Bill and Ben would be very popular in Large Scale. Rosie is also a good choice. The only issue with Mavis is her relevance. The only issue with Duck would be his rather long chassis. Bachmann should definitely look into making Large Scale Bill and Ben.

[Falcon the 2nd]

Bill & Ben do feel fairly likely to come next, the more I think of it. They're ripe for Large Scale treatments in the senses that their sizes conform to manufacturing eligibility and the range coincidentally offers more then enough wagons/trucks for them to pull. The recent welcoming reception of Diesel and Paxton should be an incentive to announce two engines simultaneously with a new tooling again. With that said, Bill & Ben would be the wisest choice of an engine duo to introduce next - they're just the right size and they would likely be successful in Large Scale since they were already very successful in HO Scale. I know I'd certainly be open to buying them if they were announced.

This is a small suggestion, but if they end up announced and made, I would hope that their wheels are colored black like their Classic Series and HO Scale models are, instead of red like they are in the GCI series. I personally always found that to be a bit of a weird and distracting design choice. If Diesel's silver side-rods are anything to go by, future Large Scale engines based on Classic Series characters should have their aesthetics maintained from original counterparts (besides the additions of CGI faces).

As much as I have wanted Mavis for a handful of reasons and over a long period of time, I've grown increasingly uncertain about the possibility of her for the fact that she just isn't a relevant character anymore. It doesn't help that it's been about eight years since she last had any merchandise in any capacity. If by any chance she is announced at some point in the future, it would be a pleasant surprise and I'd definitely be interested, but for now, the considerable barrier of relevance makes it hard to see her being announced for a long time.

The same can be said for Edward, though one can argue how much worse he's had it long-term despite his recent mistreatment. Edward was still getting merchandise after Mattel's takeover begun and he was appearing in the show much more often than Mavis. Mattel's hardcore attitude about Edward today, however, is still something worth thinking about while mentioning the idea of him and I do feel like it's also a barrier that may unfortunately prevent him from being announced in the future as well.

Right now, however, Bill & Ben make for a safe option to anticipate for a brand-new Large Scale tooling. If a recolor were to come next, I would hope for LBSC Thomas to be chosen.

[Chaz]

So as usual, I have plans to carry out my thoughts on what Bachmann should introduce with full-on in-depth posts and I wanted to start with narrow gauge first before moving on to the other ranges.  Best way to start this off is by talking about the top narrow gauge engine request, Sir Handel.


So, why should Bachmann introduce Sir Handel as the next narrow gauge engine?  Well to make the first point simple it comes right down to his design.  Out of all the narrow gauge engines that are in CGI that Bachmann hasn't announced yet, Sir Handel has the best design, proportion and detail wise.  In addition, he offers a nice dark blue color contrast compared to the rest of the other engines in the range, in addition to filling the infamous gap between the first 5 narrow gauge engines (being #3).


In addition to that, Sir Handel is also a safe character for Bachmann to make since recolored engines for narrow gauge are not out of the question based on Yellow Rheneas' announcement.  The best choice out there would be "Falcon" which would only be Sir Handel with a different nameplate.  They wouldn't even need to change the face either.  It would not only take less effort than Yellow Rheneas since the paintwork wouldn't need to be updated.  But odds are, more people would buy that than Yellow Rheneas, thus making Sir Handel's inclusion all the more welcome if Bachmann wants to make characters they can reuse toolings for.


Finally (and this really is more speculative), if there really is a "mandate" from Mattel that companies like Bachmann can't invest in new toolings of characters that aren't from the CGI era (which I can sort of see that also being a reason why Bachmann picked Ryan over Stepney (hopefully we can still see Stepney happen regardless)) then I would argue that Sir Handel should be the top priority for the next new engine tooling Bachmann should consider above all their other ranges.  Especially when their HO and N scale ranges both have two new engine toolings we are waiting on.  And while a lot of people are on the fence with Duncan and there's no real interest in any of the newer CGI styled narrow gauge engines, I think it goes without saying that Sir Handel really would be their safest and most well-received option for their next new engine tooling.  


Overall though I think it's suffice to say that once Bachmann is able to pull off a new narrow gauge engine, regardless if it's a new tooling or a recolor, no narrow gauge engine deserves the honor of being announced/made next than Sir Handel.  The demand and following for him is definitely there, and he easily one of the few remaining narrow gauge engines that has a wide all-around appeal.  If he's announced either at the NMRA, or even 2022, I think that it would make up the disappointment/lackluster response from Yellow Rheneas.


So now that I'm talking about Sir Handel, I wanted to talk about the next rolling stock suggestion for narrow gauge, a new open wagon.  


While Peco rolling stock recolors may have been a good idea at the time (minus the stupidly high prices), it's fair to say that after seeing how Bachmann's introducing new box vans while replacing the Peco ones respectively that Bachmann does the same with their open wagon.  


Clearly using new toolings would not only be a lot cheaper but these will sell a lot better long term, similar to that of the slate wagons and the coaches.  Especially with all the different recolor possibilities they could come up with.


The great thing about introducing these wagons is they can either be released with or without a load or be a great possibility for future recolors once a new tooling is invested in these.  Either way, combine this with the cheaper production and cost it would take to make these, I feel like this is almost a shoe-in to be added next in the narrow gauge range.


Anyway, what are everyone's thoughts on these suggestions?  Would you buy Sir Handel and also agree that no other narrow gauge engine should take priority over him?  Would you be interested in buying the new open wagons as well?

Let me know your thoughts and I'll talk about HO and N scale in future posts.

[Falcon the 2nd]

Your input on Sir Handel was very well-put and summarized perfectly why he should be next in the Narrow Gauge line. I, too, wholeheartedly believe he should be next above all else and I would 100% buy him if he were announced and produced. Can't account for much about the newer open wagons, but depending on how the box van refreshes go, I might see myself wanting the wagons too.

These in-depth posts are honestly really good and I'm curious on what you think of possibilities for other lines.

[TerencetheTractor525]

As far as new toolings are concerned, I am confident that Sir Handel will be Bachmann's next narrow gauge engine, and would certainly purchase one for my collection. I also agree that Sir Handel should be Bachmann's first priority as the next narrow gauge engine. However, if new toolings cannot happen right away, I hope that Smudger could be the second resort to still make up for Yellow Rheneas' announcement.

As far as the narrow gauge open wagons are concerned, I would certainly purchase them, but only if they are based on ones that appeared in the model era of the show and come in colors such as black and brown. Gimmicky Blue Mountain Quarry CGI ones that are red or green would not interest me, on the other hand. Hence, as shown in Chaz's post, these would be ideal:

[DinoNTrains]

I totally agree about Sir Handel. It makes so much sense, considering he is Number 3 on the Skarloey Railway (with Skarloey, Rheneas, and Rusty being released already, and with Peter Sam on the way).

[TrainFan97]

Here's my predictions for the NMRA:

HO Scale:
Sidney
Gordon's Special Coach
Ventilated Van - Explosives
Chocolate Syrup Tanker
Toffee Tanker

Narrow Gauge:
Smudger
Open Wagon
Brake Van - Brown

N Scale:
Henrietta
Tidmouth Milk Tanker
Open Wagon - Red
Coal Wagon with Load

Large Scale:
Bill
Ben
Red Coach
Red Brake Coach

We may or may not get a full lineup, or only one announcement like last year (Origin James), but these are definitely items Bachmann must consider. Didn't list Stepney or Sir Handel because we already have some new toolings on the horizon for their respective ranges, and they'll both most likely be saved for 2022.

[TTL]

So as usual, I have plans to carry out my thoughts on what Bachmann should introduce with full-on in-depth posts and I wanted to start with narrow gauge first before moving on to the other ranges.  Best way to start this off is by talking about the top narrow gauge engine request, Sir Handel.


So, why should Bachmann introduce Sir Handel as the next narrow gauge engine?  Well to make the first point simple it comes right down to his design.  Out of all the narrow gauge engines that are in CGI that Bachmann hasn't announced yet, Sir Handel has the best design, proportion and detail wise.  In addition, he offers a nice dark blue color contrast compared to the rest of the other engines in the range, in addition to filling the infamous gap between the first 5 narrow gauge engines (being #3).


In addition to that, Sir Handel is also a safe character for Bachmann to make since recolored engines for narrow gauge are not out of the question based on Yellow Rheneas' announcement.  The best choice out there would be "Falcon" which would only be Sir Handel with a different nameplate.  They wouldn't even need to change the face either.  It would not only take less effort than Yellow Rheneas since the paintwork wouldn't need to be updated.  But odds are, more people would buy that than Yellow Rheneas, thus making Sir Handel's inclusion all the more welcome if Bachmann wants to make characters they can reuse toolings for.


Finally (and this really is more speculative), if there really is a "mandate" from Mattel that companies like Bachmann can't invest in new toolings of characters that aren't from the CGI era (which I can sort of see that also being a reason why Bachmann picked Ryan over Stepney (hopefully we can still see Stepney happen regardless)) then I would argue that Sir Handel should be the top priority for the next new engine tooling Bachmann should consider above all their other ranges.  Especially when their HO and N scale ranges both have two new engine toolings we are waiting on.  And while a lot of people are on the fence with Duncan and there's no real interest in any of the newer CGI styled narrow gauge engines, I think it goes without saying that Sir Handel really would be their safest and most well-received option for their next new engine tooling.  


Overall though I think it's suffice to say that once Bachmann is able to pull off a new narrow gauge engine, regardless if it's a new tooling or a recolor, no narrow gauge engine deserves the honor of being announced/made next than Sir Handel.  The demand and following for him is definitely there, and he easily one of the few remaining narrow gauge engines that has a wide all-around appeal.  If he's announced either at the NMRA, or even 2022, I think that it would make up the disappointment/lackluster response from Yellow Rheneas.


So now that I'm talking about Sir Handel, I wanted to talk about the next rolling stock suggestion for narrow gauge, a new open wagon.  


While Peco rolling stock recolors may have been a good idea at the time (minus the stupidly high prices), it's fair to say that after seeing how Bachmann's introducing new box vans while replacing the Peco ones respectively that Bachmann does the same with their open wagon.  


Clearly using new toolings would not only be a lot cheaper but these will sell a lot better long term, similar to that of the slate wagons and the coaches.  Especially with all the different recolor possibilities they could come up with.


The great thing about introducing these wagons is they can either be released with or without a load or be a great possibility for future recolors once a new tooling is invested in these.  Either way, combine this with the cheaper production and cost it would take to make these, I feel like this is almost a shoe-in to be added next in the narrow gauge range.


Anyway, what are everyone's thoughts on these suggestions?  Would you buy Sir Handel and also agree that no other narrow gauge engine should take priority over him?  Would you be interested in buying the new open wagons as well?

Let me know your thoughts and I'll talk about HO and N scale in future posts.

Indeed, and seriously guys, do you ACTUALLY expect them to make Smudger? Cause there's a long long list of reasons why they won't.

[Plow_Bender]

I definitely agree that Sir Handel is the best choice for the next Narrow Gauge announcement.  Like Chaz already mentioned, he offers contrast to what we have in the range already and fills the number gap between Rheneas and Peter Sam.  I can also say I'm for the idea of Bachmann reusing the model to make Falcon, as it does seem like this would be a great piece of nostalgia for those who want to model their layouts after the Mid Sodor Railway.  I do wonder if Bachmann would consider this though as a nameplate change seems very minor, but at the same time it's so simple to do.  Regardless, I think Sir Handel should definitely take priority for the NMRA or 2022 announcements.  Same for the wagons as well.

Now I'm not trying to step on anyone's toes by saying this, but I do think we need to take a few steps back on the whole Smudger topic.  Considering people were literally on this the day of announcements, I think it just shows ignorance.  Yes yellow Rheneas wasn't something anyone asked for, but it makes sense why he was announced over a new engine like Sir Handel or even a recolor like Smudger.  What people don't seem to understand is that significance also plays a factor into a character getting announced.  Stepney is another example people have been knocking down the door to see get a model in HO, but he honestly doesn't have any significance because he is not a character from the CGI era.  If it's true that Mattel doesn't want Bachmann investing into characters that aren't CGI based, then it's pretty clear Stepney isn't going to happen.

Smudger on the other hand has even less significance than Stepney.  He only had a small appearance back in Season 4, and because of that his character is very much forgettable.  He hasn't even received any merchandise in the last 10 years, so clearly Mattel doesn't see him as a marketable character either.  I understand people think he has a chance from Bachmann just because his tooling is already there with Rheneas, but this same argument can be made with characters like Splatter and Dodge.  Bachmann has the tooling there from Diesel, but those characters are not going to happen because they hold no significance today.  The same thing applies to Smudger being made from Rheneas.  Bachmann still has to make a new face tooling, which they would already be doing for something like Sir Handel anyway...

Again, I don't want to sound like I'm putting down those who are asking for Smudger, but if someone wants to get upset with me for being realistic, then so be it.  There certainly seemed like far more demand for Sir Handel back in 2020, and Smudger was hardly mentioned.  Now we suddenly have people who would rather step back and see another minor recolor get announced, rather than a new tooling/character.  These sort of discussions aren't necessarily a bad thing, but when people constantly want to discuss items that clearly don't have a chance of being made rather than something that would actually be considered, that's how we end up with announcements that no one wants...

-Rusty

[Chaz]

There certainly seemed like far more demand for Sir Handel back in 2020, and Smudger was hardly mentioned.  Now we suddenly have people who would rather step back and see another minor recolor get announced, rather than a new tooling/character.  These sort of discussions aren't necessarily a bad thing, but when people constantly want to discuss items that clearly don't have a chance of being made rather than something that would actually be considered, that's how we end up with announcements that no one wants...

THANK YOU!

Sir Handel rightfully deserves priority over Smudger regardless of the latter being a recolor, Sir Handel will be the better seller and more people would be excited for him
than Smudger in a landslide.  So prioritizing Smudger over Sir Handel is honestly kinda silly.  It's no different than prioritizing Splatter and Dodge over Stepney.