Bachmann Annoucements for new locomoitives

[ryeguyisme]

having the space is one thing, knowing you can lose that space is another.... if I ever move out I would deff need the space for everything I own and I have tons of stuff


Thank god for kitbashing and the ability to create your own work of art even if you know the prototype to a science.

I kind of messed around with a mantua 2-6-6-2 to make it look sort of like an L-62 but it's a tad obvious it's not

[Doneldon]

Donelson and ryeguyisme and others who think brass is going to get cheaper--

You are absolutely dreaming if you think brass prices are going to collapse further than they already have.  I would love to smoke what you are smoking--because it's insanely good stuff.

Yellow-

I would really like to believe you are right about the future of brass prices but the law of supply and demand tends to prove itself over and over again. Steam lovers are dying in greater numbers every day while few new model rails are being born. Your argument about this would be more credible if you could get the details right, like something as simple as my name!

I can't speak for Rye, but what I'm smoking is easy to find if you're looking for it. It's called Reality.

                                                                                                   -- Doneldon

[blwfish]

however stating that brass steam isn't going to depreciate in value whether new or old, basket case or mint in the coming years and I'm not talking 2 years in the future, I'm talking 20 years when I'm finally middle aged brass prices are going to be significantly less.

I'll just tell you about my experience. When I was your age, I couldn't afford brass either. But I put a few nickels together and bought a couple of pieces, mostly the less expensive ones. It took me a year to save for each one. I was very confident in my career abilities and assumed that my income would grow over time, and I'd be able to afford them later. Guess what happened. My income went up, pretty drastically. I am in my peak earning years. And that brass is not really more affordable to me now, twenty plus years later. The least expensive ones kept pace with inflation, and the medium to upper end ones appreciated more than that.

I'm not sure why you are so confident that the prices are going to plummet. It's not as if plastic prices are plummeting, they aren't. In fact, the prices of plastic models are soaring, even relative to inflation. The plastic and hybrid models are now approaching those of some of the brass models, yet they are still not anywhere near as diverse. It does not follow that the prices of brass will plunge. Particularly not the prices of new models that will be built from here out - because there's inflation in the world, particularly in the Asian economies where brass has traditionally been made. (This is one big contributor to the rising cost of plastic models, in fact.)

[ryeguyisme]

Let's look at the DRGW brass f-81. Now why would such a nice model be so readily available now? People are just trying to get rid of them, the PFM's normally would have gone for $1300 to $1500 yet why are they steadily dropping to $1100 and then to $990 and still not selling? I saw just a week ago a PSC F-81 go for $800 and that's a later model than the PFM

But also keep in mind I'm a bloodthirsty bargain hunter, I already got a steal on a key m-64 in mint condition for next to nothing and it looks a lot better than the price inflated PFM model. 

The thing is, the value is depreciating with the times, you have to think along the lines of my generation, I dare you to find another 23 year old steam only brass collector with his god awful huge collection(believe me having a lot can be stressful)

I mean sure my peers are really impressed by my mechanical skills and modeling skills, but they aren't into it, we are also a hands on/digital generation. If it doesn't work, give up,if its not ready to run I don't want it, if it doesn't have a decoder then it won't work for me type of kids.

I'm saddened that kits have home the way of the dinosaur and steam is in a way going with it, I stopped reading model railroader simply because the articles becnae more and more about modern equipment and rivet counting and the lack of character like in kitbashing. It's become more about digitalness and less about how to get those bowser/mdc kits to run like a swiss watch

Plus its collecting video games now not locomotives and saving up for that articulated in the glass case. Most kids my age into model railroading are into just diesels for the most part(*curses*) I have yet to meet a die hard steam locomotive aficianado like myself in my generation unless the Thomas line spewed out a few, but I wouldn't rely on those numbers alone.

Again supply and demand, you're right some of the plastic engine prices are on the rise when they've been a few years out of production, look at bachmanns southern pacific heavy 4-8-2 on eBay when they're available, people are fighting over them like piranhas, and then this brass engine that a bunch of guys were bidding against me with a reserve didn't even meet and I came out higher bidder short $100 of the reserve price. I guess people really didn't want that. Even though it was listed at a recent price value for the engine, people simply didn't want it for too much, like the other reserve engines that turn up $100 reserved and reposted over and over again, because their value is still dropping and no one wants the engine for the market price.


When I order parts from precision scale, their prices are rising only due to the growing lack of customers as well as inflation. A buddy of mine bought thousands of PSC parts in one lot for $30. I just hope some of these companies stick around or I'm just going to have to start milling my own parts, which I do sometimes.

The brass Russian decapods however are maintaining a tad higher prices than the spectrum engines because of their metal construction unless you have Jim findleys Tioga pass 2-10-0 which went for 4 figures I believe(he was a legend with John Allen)


Not starting any arguments and I hope you all feel the same nothing more than a healthy debate with points on both sides.


So if bachmann announces another Norfolk and Western engine, say the Z1's that are only made in brass otherwise, would their brass value drop due to a market flood of them? The new bachmann 2-6-6-2's still command a steep price even for dcc only because its still relatively new as well but it will drop off eventually, the older version spectrum 2-6-6-2's are down to $90 dcc ready if you look hard enough

[jward]

the price of brass diesels is dropping like a rock. why? well consider the fact that almost every diesel made is now available in plastic, most with dcc, and many with sound. and all for less than the price brass used to fetch before dcc.

most brass is not dcc ready, making conversion a pain in the ***, and you really have to be a glutton for punishment to install sound. simply put, most of the diesel market is no longer that interested in brass because there are much better alternatives.

with steam it probably is a differe3nt story. i am not really interested in steam so i wouldn't know.

[ryeguyisme]

Steam is going to take a lot longer to drop off simply because of the extensive variety in steam vs diesels, beyond USRA there's so many prototypes made in brass you might go insane trying to keep track of them. But the amount of steam modelers is also diminishing

[Doneldon]

I'm not sure why you are so confident that the prices are going to plummet. It's not as if plastic prices are plummeting, they aren't. In fact, the prices of plastic models are soaring, even relative to inflation. The plastic and hybrid models are now approaching those of some of the brass models, yet they are still not anywhere near as diverse. It does not follow that the prices of brass will plunge. Particularly not the prices of new models that will be built from here out

the price of brass diesels is dropping like a rock. why? well consider the fact that almost every diesel made is now available in plastic, most with dcc, and many with sound. and all for less than the price brass used to fetch before dcc.

simply put, most of the diesel market is no longer that interested in brass because there are much better alternatives.

with steam it probably is a differe3nt story. i am not really interested in steam so i wouldn't know.

blow and Jeff-

Blow, I must respectfully disagree with you. I don't think that either the popularity or the prices of brass diesel locomotives are heavily influenced by the availability of top-quality plastic models. To some degree, yes, but these are really two distinct markets, with a lot of overlap in customer bases to be sure. The difference is that brass buyers are far more likely to be collectors rather than operators. That's not to say no one ever runs a brass diesel or that there aren't plastic ones relegated to a display shelf or the proverbial roundhouse in the closet, it's just to recognize that there are two fairly distinct markets for brass and plastic locomotives. How much the availability of excellent plastic models influences the interest in or prices of brass diesels, however, is irrelevant to the thesis Rye and I have been writing about: the future of brass steam prices. That's a completely different story, as partly exemplified by Jeff's comment.

To repeat his quotation, "... i'm not really interested in steam ..." That says it all. Go to a train show or convention and you will encounter two groups, old guys like me and younger folks like Jeff.

I grew up in the last years of steam. I lived outside of a small Northwest Indiana bedroom community. We had to cross the Nickel Plate mainline every time we went to town. Often, like daily, we had to wait for a fast freight headed by one of the glorious NP Berks. When I was really little, they scared me. They were huge, noisy, and effectively overhead because our road crossed at a sharp and seriously banked curve which made it seem like the monsters were going to crash right on top of us. My mother worked in Chicago most of my childhood, commuting on the PRR's infamous "Dummy," which was usually pulled by steam. I'd see those engines when my father was home and we went to pick my Mom up. I also had the opportunity to see Grand Trunk and occasional New York Central Steam when my Mom went to pick my Dad up. He worked for the Santa Fe, which enabled additional exposure to steam locos, and commuted to Chicago every ten days for a five-day trip to Los Angeles and back. I remember Rock Island and C&NW steam commuter trains in Chicago and LOTS of steam engines working in Chicago and Gary. So I grew up around working steam engines, not just a rare ride on a tourist railroad. Most of those other old guys at the train shows were also exposed to plenty of working steam as youth. But we're getting older, much older. I already see references to how much smaller the pieces of our models are becoming and how much more clumsy our fingers are. Over the next 20 years, most of us, who now have plenty of money to support the brass steam engine market, will leave the hobby due to death or inability. Who is going to replace us? Nobody, I think.

Look again at that second group at the train show. It's much smaller than the old guy contingent. That alone will limit the demand side of the supply and demand equation. But there is another at least equally impactful factor: None of that younger cohort had the opportunity to see working steam as a routine part of their childhoods. So steam has no glory or romance for most of them, no sentimental meaning, no nostalgia, no identification with "now this is railroading." When the smaller, younger model rails think railroading, they think "diesel." Is that true for every soul? No, of course not, but it's true for the vast majority. If you doubt that, ask some young model railroaders, if you can find some, or just read Jeff's statement. As a group they aren't interested.

With the exception of a few things which are artificially price controlled, like diamonds, the law of supply and demand governs what something is worth. For brass steam locomotives the supply is likely to be fairly static -- there's no reason to believe brass steam will be thrown away in great quantities or newly manufactured in large numbers. Just the opposite is true on the demand side. As we old guys leave the hobby there will be comparatively few people to replace us. Supply stays the same but demand drops and prices follow the lowered demand. That's not to say that there are no younger hobbyists who will maintain interest in brass steam or that every brass steam loco will plummet in price, even the rare hand-built pieces, but supply will substantially exceed demand which will destroy prices. Frankly, it's only that my old guy cohort has so much disposable income right now which is supporting the market at all. If we still had children to raise and college to pay for we wouldn't be buying much brass, either, and prices would already be down significantly. They're only a little soft so far, but they'll begin dropping consistently over the next 20 years, and at an ever increasing rate. This isn't rocket science, it's elementary economics.

As one last point to support my argument, look at the availability of kits. Years ago, everything came in kits and lots of us bought them because we could stretch our rare hobby dollars over more items than if we bought RTR. But today? It's a different story. Those failing eyes and fat fingers are making it less fun for many oldsters to build a kit and we have enough money now that the savings versus RTR isn't so important. Toss in the instant gratification era of our larger culture and how busy people are and you can see that many younger modelers would rather spend a little more for RTR and save their time for running trains rather than building them. Just to stop the irrelevant contention that "well, I know lots of younger modelers who still build kits," I'm not saying no one builds kits today, just that far fewer are being built. The proof of that is how much RTR has come to dominate model railroad store shelves. It's most of the merchandise now. Heck, even Woodland Scenics, a company which was established to supply and grew on supplying scenic materials, now sells assembled structures, as does Walthers and dozens of other manufacturers.

Well, for the few of you with the patience to have read so far, let me conclude with a thanks and the advice to wait 10 or 20 years to buy brass steam if you like it. It will be a fraction of today's price by then.

                                                                                                                            -- D

[NWsteam]

I have yet to meet a die hard steam locomotive aficianado like myself in my generation unless the Thomas line spewed out a few, but I wouldn't rely on those numbers alone.

22 years old and my fleet is 99% steam. I own one brass loco (2trk shay) and am currently saving for a N&W 4-8-0. The problem is I'm trying to pay off college, move out of my parents house, and I drive a 1994 GMC Sierra that is ready to die. So locomotives and modeling in general have really taken the back burner.

Thomas did play a big role in it for me.

Kids these days do think modern...but they do get excited and beg for the throttle when my N&W y6b 2-8-8-2 comes around the corner hauling 60 hoppers.


-Brad

[ryeguyisme]

Brad,

You can't beat  steam

[2-8-8-4]

The PFM DRGW F-81 is a Crown model; as such its price was grossly inflated in the past.  It is a poor example to use for brass model prices or values, and comparing it to a Precision Scale F-81 is even worse, as in general the Precision Scale brass models tend to look pretty good but run poorly.  If a particular model's price falls it is usually because there is a problem with the model's accuracy (PFM exaggerated the boiler diameter by 10% on a number of engines to make them appear more impressive--this definitely included the M-75 4-8-2) or there is a known problem with running/quality control.  In general, brass models do not go down in value, but up.

Crowns in general no longer enjoy the mystique they once had, and have been somewhat surpassed in quality by newer runs; their value has remained relatively flat.  Years ago Crowns were highly prized as being the "cream of the crop" but those collectors are indeed the ones passing from the scene today--and the younger generation behind them prefers newer models, made in Korea, that are more highly detailed/individual engine specific--and in some cases do run better.

However, the Key/Samhongsa DRGW M-64 used to go for about $350 in mint condition; now that might be more nearly $450 or even more--but prices on those and similar models have not plummeted--they have remained fairly steady for many years.

I have actually bought and sold a lot of brass--at least more than 100 pieces.  I do in fact know a little bit about the values of the models at this point.  Though I personally lost some money on brass by excessive trading and/or buying the occasional defective locomotive (missing critical hidden pieces and thus unable to run correctly), I know for a fact that most people who bought brass have made a profit on their models.

I have been directly involved in the liquidation of brass collections that belonged to others--and the models held their value quite nicely--even after having been played with, even being "used".

I also mean no disrespect to the plastic or hybrid owners out there; right now I do not own any brass at all--so I'm in your crowd.

The asking price on some hybrids is now double what it was when they were new.  (MTH UP 4-12-2 currently on Ebay).  That alone will maintain brass values.

Respectfully submitted--

John

[2-8-8-4]

Also--brass diesels in particular have gone through a consistent price cycle.

The price is high when Overland releases them and everyone has to have one because it's the only way to get the latest/greatest version.

Then a year or two later, either when the real railroad buys a new model or a plastic manufacturer comes out with the same thing, the price on the Overland diesel plummets, and dealers can't get rid of the remaining inventory without some kind of discount.

The price then remains rather low from year 2 through perhaps year 5 after release.

By then they are all gone from the marketplace--and then, because nobody can find one if they want one, the price recovers and starts to head back up again, surpassing the new MSRP.

This curve has been going on this way for a good 20 years in the brass market.  It has happened time and time again with countless models--partly because the diesel fans are obsessed with having the absolute latest/greatest model.

There is nothing new under the sun.

Steam forever!

John born 1968

[2-8-8-4]

The best indicator of plastic/hybrid model train sales and pricing is currently www.modeltrainstuff.com

Their inventory is real time--if I buy it, the quantity available immediately decreases by one.

For anyone who thinks steam isn't popular--I respectfully suggest they check the website inventory.  A whole bunch of the best steamers are completely sold out at this time (including many Bachmanns), while diesels, particularly F units, and the latest/greatest thing, are in reasonably good supply.  When they had the Bachmann 2-6-0's and 2-8-8-4's (lettered versions), they both actually went quickly and in fairly significant numbers.

John

P.S.  A few years back, I was the 23-year old with a brass steam collection--then in my early 30's I sold them and put the money into our house.  Now at 43, I'd like to get back into the brass, but with kids, mortgage, cars...it will have to wait.  I enjoy the plastic stuff I do have at the present time, and am contemplating some brass East Wind passenger cars.

[ryeguyisme]

THANK GOD for things like "layaway"

[jward]

i think doneldon hit it on the head.     we buy what we know.    i know that what i buy now are either locomotives i saw in real life, or railroads (like the new haven) i wish i'd have seen.    locomotives have to be seen in real life to be fully appreciated.    how do you explain the earth shaking rumble of sd45s under heavy load?   that 20 cylinder engine had a very unique sound, and now the ones that survive for the most part have had their original engine replaced with the same 16 cylinder one used in the sd40-2.  another experience gone.   and to the younger railfans, just another emd, albeit one with funny looking radiators.   how do you explain the sound of 5 gp9s trying to get a coal train up a 3% grade?  fortunately, we have them in model form.....

i don't think most of us necessarily go for the "newest and best" diesels.   i personally think many of them are overrated.
for example, broadway limited is considered top of the line and yet, my emd sw7 is probably the worst pulling engine i have, next to thomas.  the bachmann s4 i just bought is much better suited to my needs.  the same goes for brass, i am not going to pay a couple hundred for a brass sd45 when i can get bachmann's for well under $100.

[WTierce1]

I still want a PRR S2 but  I have been informed thoroughly that that is not going to happen.