An N scale K4 in the works

[1218classa]

      Ok, Bach man, let's see. I started this post in Feb. of 2009. As of today there have been over 2600 views and 74 replies (ranked #1 and # 3 respectively as of today). If everyone that viewed this post on average purchased just one engine each that would be 2600+ right there. And that just includes this forum! Compared to the other forums that I have been reading, 2600 is a small percentage of the possible total of sales you would have.
     The other Spectrum models that you have produced in N scale are of excellent quality and price. You definetly have established a very good reputation for building quality locos. But I don't understand why Bachmann won't build one of the most requested engines ever!
     A large part of N scalers that don't normally model the UP have purchased a Big Boy or Challenger just because of its popularity. Another example is your very own N&W Class J. This model is very specific to that road. No other railroad ran these locomotives, period. And yet they sell very well! I have two of them myself. Now this loco proves that if you build a K4s that they will buy it in droves!!!!!
If word ever got out that Bachmann was going to build a K4s the hits on this site and other forums would skyrocket. You would have modelers reserving their locos quicker than a jackrabbit on a date!!

[ABC]

From another post:

There is currently about 375 million residents combined between the U.S. and Canada, as much as Bachmann U.S.A. wants to listen to all its customers, there are millions of them and it would be impossible to keep track of everything suggested on this or that form, but I'm sure they will do their best to try and have the best products possible and satisfy as many people possible of their customer base as they have done since 1833.

And in order for it to be worthwhile (large profit margin) for Bachmann to make they would need to sell either a large quantity or a smaller quantity for a large price. The latter would not go over so well with the customers. If you are interested in ordering several thousand locomotives; then a manufacturer would gladly produce them. And since you think they would fare so well, you can easily sell all the extras since you are so confident it will be in great demand.  Bachmann employees people that investigate what products would be best to produce as far as demand and they project if the item ultimately can be a successful endeavor. I wish you good luck, and I am sure Bachmann will continue to produce many new, great products for years to come.

[1218classa]

 It' not only me that thinks this loco would be a success but at least every other person that viewed and/or replied to this thread. I take it then, ABC, that you do not think that an N scale K4s would be a successful model?

[ABC]

I take it then, ABC, that you do not think that an N scale K4s would be a successful model?

No, I am just saying that I will trust the guys at Bachmann to figure it out. Whether or not Bachmann can be successful with a K4 depends on how it is defined. Bachmann puts a lot of thought into everything and considers everything possible before making a decision. I am just saying if you think people would like a K4 so much; you can probably get a company to produce them for you if you are willing to purchase say 10,000 at $500 (+/-$200) each depending on the cost of the mold and manufacturing. The only problem is that cost and quantity are indirectly proportional to each other. I don't know many people who could spare a few million dollars to make a loco, when you could probably buy a real 1:1 K4 for less.
I hope Bachmann makes it for you and your twenty-six hundred friends, although all customers are important to Bachmann, 2600 people is negligible in the grand scheme of things, it is .000000693% of its customer base.

[David Leonard]

Bachmann's job is to figure out the market. Our job is to advocate for what we want in order to help them figure out the market!  Thanks for keeping this thread alive!

[1218classa]

      That is my point, David. Bachmann can't deny that this locomotive is a hot topic to most n scalers. Wouldn't you say Kato's customer base for the Broadway limited sets they offer is about the same size? They did't seem to mind it was only .000000693% as ABC stated.

[ABC]

Wouldn't you say Kato's customer base for the Broadway limited sets they offer is about the same size? They did't seem to mind it was only .000000693% as ABC stated.

The difference is that they charge more per locomotive than Bachmann and it doesn't upset the customers. Would you be willing to pay $100-$200 more per locomotive if Bachmann made a wider variety?

Here's some sample math:
Say Bachmann can only make 100 locomotives a year. So say one year Bachmann is making only 2 locomotives. The cost of 1 mold is $500. Bachmann wants to have a profit of $5,000 this year. Bachmann's costs would be $1000 so they would need to charge $60 per loco to make $6000. Say the next year Bachmann decides to make 10 new locos. 10 molds would cost $5,000, so now they need to make $10,000 to have a $5,000 profit. To do so they would need to sell each loco for $1,000. The more (new) different locos they make, the greater the price of the locos.

[keithwarltier]

Dear Mr. Bach-man,
As a customer who would pay in advance for a K4 pacific, could I please ask you to  consider having a no promises on line K4 survey, possibly consisting of:-
Phase 1.  Ask the customers what issues and requirements should be in
                the survey, for example, DCC operated tender coupler, sound
                on board, minimum radius, etc.
Phase 2.  Have Bachmann experts build a list from this input
Phase 3.  Ask the customers to prioritize the list
Phase 4.  Collate and publish the results
Phase 5.  Have Bachmann experts assess the results and make recommendations.
Cheers,
Keith   

[1218classa]

 Same dealer website:
Bachmann Spectrum N scale Class J $109
Kato SP GS-4 Daylight                       $135
....... I don't see a $100-$200 difference, sorry.

[geocan]

Just because a person views a thread it does not mean they support the thread or wish to order the product advocated by the product.  

Manufacturers (most if not all of them eventually) have learned the very hard and expensive way that forum participation is generally limited to the very active but very few minority.     Participation in a thread does not necessarily mean that an item is in demand by the whole community.  

This is one area where the 80/20 rule applies in that 80% of the noise is generated by 20% of the community.  However will 80% of the sales come from that 20%.  If so the model will not be successful.  I have customers askig for 50+ ATSF CF7's in pistripe paint scheme alone.  That alone does not translate to the necessary xx,xxx models that are needed to be sold to pay for tooling.   Sales of the Broadway Limited reportedly were not as good as hoped for which could be taken as an indication that PRR sales as a whole will be bad  but that is not necessarily so.

[1218classa]

     This is the reason I titled this thread like I did. I wanted to show Bachmann that there is a very good interest in building this locomotive. No one else makes this particular model. The last one of these made by Trix was many years ago.

[Franz T]

I have been following this thread of and on for the last few months, so maybe a dozen or so of the "over 2600 views" belong to me.  However, I have absolutely no interest in buying a K4 at any price. So that 2600+ figure is a highly unscientific sample, (sort of  like the polls one finds on the websites of some news organizations which are then loudly touted as "the desire of the population"). The determining factor is the number of units that will actually be SOLD AT A PRICE CLOSE TO FULL RETAIL.
In fact, I would love to see a Russian Decapod as was announced a few years ago and then cancelled due to "lack of a small motor". I would purchase at least 4 of those; however, I would not purchase 400. To recover the cost of tooling a certain number of units must be sold at an amount fairly close to list price in order for the model to be profitable. I seem to recall that when the Decapod was released in HorriblyOversized scale that not too long after they were first released they could be gotten at Fire Sale prices from various sellers. I doubt that B'mann made a profit on that one, which is why I am fairly sure I will never see one in N scale. There are several manufacturers out there, and NONE has shown any interest in a K4 . I wonder why that would be.  Has anyone noticed that Walthers (LifeLike, Proto2K) appears to have effectively exited the N Scale market? Anyone care to guess as to why that could be? (hint: I picked up four  $200   2-8-4 Berkshires for around 70 Bucks each last year, I wonder how much money they made on those??)

[David Leonard]

I don't think any of us knows what would be a marketable model in N scale, and many manufacturers don't seem to know either. I have to wonder, e.g., whether Bachmann actually announced the Decapod before considering the size of the motor.  Why would they do that? Seems like you'd want to know you could actually produce it before you announced it! It's just as possible that there wasn't enough of a demand for it, and the lack of a small motor was just a smokescreen.  So, why not announce a K4 and see what the demand really is? If the answer is that there isn't enough of a demand, then maybe some of us will shut up.

One of the benefits of the pre-order system (which Atlas uses, for example) is that the manufacturer has a better idea of what's maketable. LL/Walthers did not use this system with the Berkshire, and as a result they overproduced them.  But the 2nd and 3rd runs of the 2-8-8-2 were pre-ordered and sold out very soon.  Bachmann generally does not use this system, which makes the introduction of a new model more risky, but seemingly they've done well anyway.  However, within a few months of the first run of 44T's, you could buy a one new for $55. Does that mean Bachmann made no profit from it? I don't think so.  We'll never know, but a LL Berkshire for $70 may only represent leftover stock from overproduction with Walthers making a profit anyway from the total  number they produced.

[ABC]

Same dealer website:
Bachmann Spectrum N scale Class J $109
Kato SP GS-4 Daylight                       $135
....... I don't see a $100-$200 difference, sorry.

That is completely irrelevant to the MSRP, the dealer can charge whatever he choses. Currently Bachmann is not producing a huge variety of locomotives; they are producing some variety. If they were to make around fifty different types of locos, then you would see a price increase of around $100-$200 per loco. That isn't at all related to what I was saying; I was not saying anything about the present. I did not say or in any way imply there would currently be a difference of $100 between Bachmann and Kato. I said if they made a wider variety of locos; you would see a price increase to offset the cost of new molds.

[1218classa]

      ABC I seriously doubt that you have ever paid MSRP for any N scale items. You have paid what the dealer wanted for them. Now if the dealer can charge whatever he or she chooses to make a profit then they will be charging more than what they pay for it. How much more is up to them. Even when Hobby Lobby cleared out their model railroad inventory they made a profit albeit a very small one.
MSRP is exactly what it means! Manufacturer's SUGGESTED Retail Price.