Is the hobby dying (2024)?

[MrNormalDraws]

So with the recent store closures of Hattons UK and ModelTrainStuff, I wanna ask if you guys think the hobby is dying or not.

I never had much history with Hattons, but I bought from ModelTrainStuff for years until they made a lot of changes, such as adding taxes and when they closed their reward system late last month. Then I found out about their closures from instagram.

What do you guys think?

[trainman203]

I don't know what to think.

🫨😪😭😭

[Fred Klein]

No, I don't think so. As inflation keeps on going and prices rise, more income must go to meet day-to-day living expenses, thus leaving less and less disposable income for "luxury" items, such as hobbies. That's when businesses close due to lack of sales. In my 75 years, I've seen this happen several times and usually what happens is that once the economy settles back down, prices stabilize and, eventually, wages catch up also. That's when there will be more disposable income available again for the "luxury" items. How long this cycle will take is anybody's guess. Hopefully, it won't be more than a year or two.

Just keep in mind its not only model railroading that's affected, its most other hobbies also.
Hope this helps.

[jward]

If the hobby is dying it is partly because things have gotten so expensive. There used to be quality, budget friendly freight car kits for well under $10. and most locomotives were under $100. Now cars routinely run $40 OR MORE AND $300 locomotives are becoming the norm.


As for Hattons and MB Klein,  Hattons had just bought Model Train Stuff a month or so before they went under, and dragged MBK/MRS down with them. I really don't see many others of any size going under in recent years. The last big loss I recall was Model Power/ Mantua leaving the market a decade ago. In the meantime, we have had several new manufacturers pop up.

[trainman203]

But it's also because trains are not the center of daily life anymore like they were 75 years ago, and don't attract attention like they did. Nothing will get your attention quite like a live, hot steam locomotive pounding and screaming through town.  And they are long gone now, at least 70 years or more in most places. Unfortunately, for me, I remember them quite well. 🫨😂😂Plus, for the digital natives, computer games are much more interesting than a train that they can't relate to going around in a circle. Which was unfortunately the entry point for Model Railroading most of the time in the past. RC cars and planes have a lot more action in them that kids will go for. Man I hate saying all this. But I just don't know what the entry point is for model railroading anymore.  Between the model prices Jeffrey Ward mentioned and the decline in both central importance and everyday drama of the railroad, I don't know what will take its place.

[jward]

The thing is, I am trackside alot and I always see younger railfans, some school aged, when I am out. It's model railroading that has stagnated. Railfanning is doing just fine, even with the lack of those steam locomotives. We also have a vibrant network of groups on Facebook which cater to "heads ups" which are reports of train sightings. Unlike years ago when you had to find a station or tower to find out about what trains were close by or due, these networks keep track of what's happening on the line. The problem isn't a lack of steam locomotives, It lies elsewhere. In addition to the uncontrolled prices in the hobby we also have totally uninspiring model magazines, clubs that are every bit as cliquish as high school, and the net result of both has sucked the fun out of the hobby for some.


Consider this: the cost of entry into this hobby is at least $500 to build even a basic layout. To build something more elaborate, but not by any means complex will cost over $1000. Take that same $1000 and invest it into railfanning and it will buy you a decent DSLR camera with a couple of lenses, am SD card for the camera, and a scanner with enough left over to finance a day trip to the hotspot of your choice. The cost of a new locomotive will finance a weekend roadtrip. And every trip is an adventure. You get to choose the type of day you want. Want to see alot of passenger trains? head to the city, Want to see older exotic locomotives? GO chase a shortline. Want to see an parade of freight trains? Head for the mainline and railyard. I live on the outskirts of a small city, and within ten miles I have a choice of three class 1 railroads and 4 shortlines. Model railroading plays second fiddle to that.



 

[trainman203]

1.  The passenger train density idea works only in the northeast.  The middle of the country has almost no passenger service at all.

2.  In all these years I've been down here, I've only ever seen railfans trackside one time.

3.  Your level of railfanning requires density of traffic and multiple railroads. Without that, there's very little to see.

4.  No one can deny that today's trains are visually much less interesting than when all of the fallen flag cars were in service 50 years ago or more.  I just can't get excited about solid trains of private owner tank cars, and covered hoppers. We don't have stack trains passing in our area but I find them even less interesting.  I haven't seen solid coal trains anywhere, although one does service a power plant 150 miles east, but I would imagine them to be visually uninteresting.

5.  Railroad security today is heightened, and accordingly access to interesting places is much more restricted than before.

SUMMATION:  Even though the CSX mainline passes 200 feet from our house, and a train passes every couple of hours, I don't even bother to look up.  My layout is much more interesting, to me, anyway.

[Yard Master]

At the Railroad Hobby Show in Springfield, MA this past weekend, we at Bachmann witnessed a record one-day attendance of over 16,000 visitors. We don't believe the model railroad hobby is dying by any means!

From what I have heard about the situation over the past few weeks, the recent closures of certain retailers was the result of financial and management issues, rather than a lack of sales or customer interest. It is a very unfortunate situation, but the good news is there are still plenty of other retailers for hobbyists to choose from, and while there may be a short term impact, I think the long term future of model railroading is bright.

[trainman203]

Great news Yardmaster.

[Ralph S]

Now this is the kind of discussion that I can get into.  A forum query posted back in July 2021 posed a slightly similar question on the "Thomas & Friends" Board.  I input my thoughts and found that those Thomas folks were only interested in variations of new Thomas trains.  Yes, I missed the point of the discussion, and haven't been back to that board for I felt embarrassed.

I concur with Mr. Klein's comments.  What I will state is that the brick-and-mortar stores are declining, and online stores are taking over.  There will be fewer brick-and-mortar stores for model railroading but from my experience, the innovative store owners have taken on additional hobby applications such as RC (remote control) toys which seem to be getting more popular.   This means that the railroad modelers will see less shelf space for railroad models in their stores.    The future of railroad modeling is not going away as long as there are Diesel Engines and Heavy Equipment needed to move and/or build things.

The challenge that model railroading has (in my opinion) is actually "living space".  (Excerpt from Thomas & Friends board)

In terms of what kids today are faced with.  Living space is a major culprit.  Another culprit is technology itself.   It doesn't matter what the manufacturer brings forward on train sets.  The consumer (the adults with kids) will have to contend with the space for the train set.  Something to think about, when we (old folks) were kids, we could have that HO train set on a 4 by 8 piece of wood and slide it in and out from under our beds.  Now, think a minute.  Today's kids, I believe, would rather sit in front of an LED screen than pull out a train that only moves in a circular or figure-eight pattern (my kids were into model trains until Nintendo came on the scene Christmas 96.  I reboxed the trains until now).  Kids today are smarter than we were due to the technology they are exposed to, that we (old folks) didn't have.  For the fortunate adults who have kids and the living space to have a model train set, then it's only the technology that their kids will decide upon.  In Japan, living space is at a premium, so I've been told.  Therefore, it's been noticed that the N scale seems to be the most lucrative.
 (Reference: https://raicho.home.xs4all.nl/model/scales.html)

If the consumer doesn't have the space to implement setting up that train set, then the cost of that train set will be next to ax the purchase.  And a excerpt from Jward, "...totally uninspiring model magazines, clubs that are every bit as cliquish as high school, the net result of both has sucked the fun out of the hobby for some."  Let alone the fact that hobby clubs have such old-fashioned "perform operations as if it's a real railroad" causes those intermediate users (like me) to lose interest in running the train.

What I believe everyone is overlooking is that gaming technology is offering more enhanced interaction than modeling technology.  The model manufacturers may not realize that they are in a battle with technology.  The kids (younger generation) are into technology and model makers and manufacturers need to get on board with the technology.   As a suggestion, to enhancing train sets, adding actual video from the cab of a locomotive to the locomotive controller (LED screen of say, the Bachmann Dynamis wireless controller) would provide some enticement to the user providing that technology boost that kids would be intrigued with.  For example, they would see the train go in that circle and would be able to visualize (from the controller screen) what it looks like from the cab of the locomotive.   An example is the gaming technology of flying a plane.  The difference is that the plane is only on the screen, whereas looking out from the train cab is on the screen, one can look up from the controller at the actual train in motion, see block signals and road crossing even see the train enter a tunnel. That double verification is an enabler for kids.  The train controller screen and seeing the actual train provide that double scene.

It doesn't matter what train set is put forward, it'll have to compete with space and technology.  Modeling won't die, since N scale may support the space issue, as for the other scales space will always be a factor.  Maybe this hobby has a lag time before it catches on, that is, I noticed most younger adults, don't have the time to put into modeling, while us old folks have that spare time.  With the cost of living always increasing both young and old generations lose that spare income. Modeling is costing more and it seems to be catering to the older generation when viewing the U-tube videos.

So to conclude, the technology that kids are exposed to will compound the issue for model railroading, slot car modeling and other none collectible models.  The next generation of technology savvy youth will determine the future of the hobby, because they have the technological wherewith-all to keep the hobby going. 

Such is my opinion....and two cents.  Maybe I should make that four cents.

P.S. None of us "Old Folks" are old, just experienced.

[RedMt Dave]

With the increase of online shopping, it gets more difficult for brick and mortar stores to stay open. I went to the ONE hobby store that we have in our area and he is no longer carrying any model train stock. He has paints and some scenery, but that's it.

[Piyer]

With the increase of online shopping, it gets more difficult for brick and mortar stores to stay open. I went to the ONE hobby store that we have in our area and he is no longer carrying any model train stock. He has paints and some scenery, but that's it.

You need to ask them WHY? they stopped carrying them. It might be because of lack of customers, but it could also be because they cannot afford to meet the distribution companies' minimum order. Meeting that minimum in the last 15 to 20 years has become more difficult because of the big mail-order companies.

Without naming names and finger pointing, if company X gives hobby shops a 40% markdown from MSRP, hobby shop Y, a mail-order business, can get by on a 15% markup, but brick store business Shop Zed needs 30% markup to cover business expenses (a storefront is pricier than a warehouse in the middle of nowhere, an employee knowledgeable in model train sales commands a high pay rate than an unskilled puller and packer in a warehouse, etc.), then the hobbyist might walk into the store, browse the offerings, and then go home - or look it up on their cellphone, see that Shop Y has it cheaper, and places the order with them. While it's not generally legal to price fix, this sort of thing could be fixed to bolster the brick store by reducing the wholesale markdown. The less the mail-order house can undercut other companies, the more the limited potential sales get spread around.

And yes, I am aware that that reads like a communist manifesto. Oops.

The future of the hobby requires several things:

• Quality, affordable entry level sets
• Availability of train items in the widest number of stores
• Availability of hobby press in the widest number of stores
• An openness on our part to helping the beginners to the hobby, regardless of their ages
• A reclassification of the 'suggested age' on model railroad products

On the second and third items, it puzzles me as to why Walmart doesn't carry model trains or hobby magazines (they occasionally have carried magazines, but I've not seen them now in over a year). Hobby Lobby carries some trains, but they are so minimal that it puzzles me as to why there isn't more of a push by the manufacturers / distributors to enlarge their shelf allotment.

Point 4 - we can be a surly lot, looking down our noses at older guys who just want to "play" with "toy trains," while younger guys (18 and under) are viewed as kids who cannot be trusted to take the hobby seriously, even if he scratchbuilt a 1:12 scale locomotive before he was old enough to drive a real one. Note I said guys - we are even less open to women and girls being involved in the hobby. That's got to change. Nobody wants to get involved in a hobby run amuck with grumpy old men.

Point 5 - Model electric trains, even Thomas & Friends, carry age 14+ recommendations. And some companies go so far as to state in the their ads that their products are not toys and are intended for adults. I've been playing with my uncle's Lionel Trains since I was 2 years old. I had my first personal Lionel set at age 3y11m (thanks Santa!). I didn't even know about the hobby until I was 10 (discovered the September 1982 MR in the news shop). Had my first HO scale set at age 12 (Bachmann Amtrak set). I'm pretty sure nobody thought I was too young to have electric trains - though some do question if I'm too old to be playing with them. 

TL;dr: The hobby isn't dying, but the public face of it is contracting due to business models and questionable gatekeeping habits.

AJK
 

[Terry Toenges]

In my case, being in a small town, do I drive 60 plus miles to the big city in hopes that a hobby shop might have what I'm looking for or do I sit at my computer and find exactly what I'm looking for on-line.

[Len]

Point 5 - Model electric trains, even Thomas & Friends, carry age 14+ recommendations.

This is a direct result of law suits brought in years gone past when young kids hurt themsselves, or others, through misuse of the product.

Len

[Terry Toenges]

I remember getting quite a shock at a younger age when I took apart a transformer to see how it worked. The jolt scared me but I was more afraid of my Dad finding out what I did. I guess I was about 11.